Desigualdad rural, ingreso agrícola y permanencia en educación media superior en México.
Resumen
La permanencia en educación media superior constituye uno de los principales desafíos del sistema educativo mexicano en territorios rurales. El objetivo fue estimar el efecto del ingreso agrícola del hogar sobre la probabilidad de permanencia escolar entre jóvenes de 15 a 17 años, mediante microdatos de la ENIGH 2016–2024 y modelos Logit con errores estándar robustos y efectos fijos por año. Los resultados indican que el ingreso agrícola pierde significancia estadística al controlar por ingreso total, escolaridad parental, trabajo juvenil y estrato socioeconómico. Becas educativas, ingreso total y escolaridad parental resultaron determinantes robustos. Se concluye que la continuidad escolar rural depende más de la capacidad económica del hogar y los apoyos institucionales que del origen agropecuario del ingreso.
Citas
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist’s companion. Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691120355/mostly-harmless-econometrics
Arellano-Esparza, C. A., & Ortiz-Espinoza, Á. (2022). Educación media superior en México: abandono escolar y políticas públicas durante la covid-19. Íconos. Revista de Ciencias Sociales, 74, 33–52. https://doi.org/10.17141/iconos.74.2022.5292
Baird, S., McIntosh, C., & Özler, B. (2019). When the money runs out: Do cash transfers have sustained effects on human capital accumulation? Journal of Development Economics, 140, 169–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.04.004.
Becker, G. S. (1993). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education (3rd ed.). University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226041223.001.0001
Boruchowicz, C., Parker, S. W., & Robbins, L. (2022). Time use of youth during a pandemic: Evidence from Mexico. World Development, 149, 105687. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105687
Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511811241
CONEVAL. (2022). Medición de la pobreza 2022. Resultados nacionales y por entidades federativas. Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social. https://www.coneval.org.mx/Medicion/MP/Paginas/Pobreza_2022.aspx
Edmonds, E. V., & Theoharides, C. (2021). Child labor and economic development. En K. F. Zimmermann (Ed.), Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics (pp. 1–29). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_74-1
FAO. (2023). Economic transformation and diversification towards off-farm income in rural and urban areas. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 23-05. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc4796en
Greene, W. H. (2018). Econometric analysis (8th ed.). Pearson. https://www.pearson.com/en-us/subject-catalog/p/econometric-analysis/P200000005909/9780134811932
Hanushek, E. A., & Woessmann, L. (2020). The economic impacts of learning losses. OECD Education Working Papers, No. 225. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/21908d74-en
INEGI. (2023). Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares (ENIGH) 2022. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enigh/nc/2022/
INEGI. (2024). Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares (ENIGH) 2024. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enigh/nc/2024/
Kozhaya, M., & Martínez Flores, F. (2022). School attendance and child labor: Evidence from Mexico’s Full-Time School program. Economics of Education Review, 90, 102294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2022.102294
Molina Millán, T., Barham, T., Macours, K., Maluccio, J., & Stampini, M. (2019). Long-term impacts of conditional cash transfers: Review of the evidence. World Bank Research Observer, 34(1), 119– 159. https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lky005
Neidhöfer, G., Serrano, J., & Gasparini, L. (2018). Educational inequality and intergenerational mobility in Latin America: A new database. Journal of Development Economics, 134, 329–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.05.016
Nordman, C. J., Sharma, S., & Sunder, N. (2022). Here comes the rain again: Productivity shocks, educational investments, and child work. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 70(3), 1041– 1063. https://doi.org/10.1086/713937
OECD. (2023). Education at a Glance 2023: OECD Indicators. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/e13bef63-en
Parker, S. W., & Vogl, T. (2023). Do conditional cash transfers improve economic outcomes in the next generation? Evidence from Mexico. The Economic Journal, 133(655), 2775–2806. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead049
Psacharopoulos, G., & Patrinos, H. A. (2018). Returns to investment in education: A decennial review of the global literature. Education Economics, 26(5), 445–458. https://doi.org/10.1080/09645292.2018.1484426
Schady, N., Holla, A., Sabarwal, S., Silva, J., & Yi Chang, A. (2023). Collapse and recovery: How the COVID-19 pandemic eroded human capital and what to do about it. World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/39403
Székely, M., Flores-Ceceña, I., Hevia, F., & Calderón, D. (2024). Measuring learning losses from delayed return to school: Evidence from Mexico. International Journal of Educational Development, 106, 102998. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2024.102998
UNESCO. (2023). Global Education Monitoring Report 2023: Technology in education. UNESCO Publishing. https://doi.org/10.54676/UZQV8501
Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. https://www.cengage.com/c/introductory-econometrics-a-modern-approach-7e-wooldridge/9781337558860/
World Bank. (2022). The State of Global Learning Poverty: 2022 Update. World Bank. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/e52f55322528903b27f1b7e61238e416-0200022022/original/Learning-poverty-report-2022-06-21-final-V7-0-conferenceEdition.pdf








