Analysis and prediction of tax collection in Ecuador before COVID-19, applying the ARIMA model.

Abstract

This research contains an analysis of tax collection and predictions in Ecuador through the application of time series models taking into account the presence of COVID-19 and the measures taken by the central government regarding this sanitary emergency. This analysis is based on the Box Jenkins methodology in order to identify a model that allows to incorporate factors that influence tax collection and to establish forecasts, so the application of different statistical tools, allowed to determine the ARIMA model as the most suitable according to the characteristics of the data provided by the Internal Revenue Service, framed within acceptable ranges of error.